Former Contributor to the Huffington Post
Vicki Cobb's Blog
  • Vicki Cobb's Blog
  • About
  • Contact

Science and Prescience

9/11/2020

 
Picture
WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES
On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)   had recorded 120,730 deaths from COVID-19 in the U. S and projected we would surpass 200,000 deaths by October first.  Were they right?  Let's check.  On October 1, 2020 the actual number of deaths was 206,733.  Hmmmm.  How could they be so accurate?  Did they use a crystal ball?

A recent NY Times article cites a study by Stanford University to quantify the mortality fallout of death by Corona as a result of 18 of Trump's pandemically- inappropriate rallies between June and September.  Their results:  more than 30,000 infections and 700 deaths.  They used data, statistics, and mathematical models to estimate what close encounters by the unmasked could generate.  

Wanna know how many dead Americans are projected to die between the election and Inauguration Day if we continue on our current path? Using that amazing graph the answer is: 140,817. If we relax the COVID restrictions ala the Trump rallies, the projection is that 211,122 COVID deaths arrive by January 20.  Now suppose we were all mandated to wear masks and 90% of us complied,  COVID will still rage but the number decreases.  We're projected to lose 89,588.  Again, doing the math( with the help of my trusty technology-invented calculator), a mask mandate  will save the lives of 51,229 of our fellow citizens in that time period.  

This is why data and analysis and models are crucial.  They are guidelines for the future.  The path they predict are only as good as the accuracy of the numbers plugged in.   Tests give us the numbers.  Tracing estimates exposure to those who test positive.  And we have proven methods for counting  the numbers of hospitalizations and people on ventilators and hospital deaths.  These are data we can trust.  

So it doesn't matter if you don't believe in science.  You're gonna find out eventually.  If you live long enough.  



Jan Adkins link
10/11/2020 11:50:08 am

Science cheerleader Vicki is right. Believe the numbers, or don't believe. The numbers don't care. Science is about numbers and results, not about what you like or don't like.

Whoa! Are you getting mathematical projections mixed up with polls? That's mixing up apples and avocados. Polls are based on people's opinions, on the questions they're asked, and on how truthfully they reply. Shaky ground. Polled people lie without realizing it: "Do you eat a healthy diet?' is a question that suggests judgment, and folks who eat nothing but hot dogs and canned beans are apt to say what they WISH they ate, or what the pollster EXPECTS them to reply. Political and health polls are notoriously inaccurate.

But scientific mathematical models are based on facts, not opinions. The data points are painstakingly real. The projected outcomes are serious warnings.

We live in a time when powerful people need to obscure facts that embarrass them. One good way to muddy the water is to confuse opinions with facts, polls with science. This is a good time to practice being a skeptic: question what you hear and read. Make good critical choices. Keep apples and avocados in their proper bins. Listen to science and ask the old, wise question, "Qui bono?" Who benefits? Science doesn't favor one party or religion or belief over another. Science is about truth. Math is its most powerful hammer.

Dorothy Patent link
10/11/2020 12:43:16 pm

One of the most alarming legacies of Trump's tenure as President is his rejection of science and dependence on wishful thinking. We can hope that the new administration will find ways to help people understand the importance of science. What with epidemics, climate change, and more, it's vital that the American people realize that the world is changing fast in ways that will affect them more negatively if they keep their heads in the sand then if they become courageous and do what they can to help slow these negative trends.


Comments are closed.

     Vicki Cobb

    *Award-winning author of more than 90 nonfiction books for children, mostly in science.
    *Former Contributor to the Huffington Post
    *Founder/President of iNK Think Tank, Inc.
    *Passionate advocate for the joy of learning for every child and teacher.


    Disclaimer: All opinions, typos, and grammatical errors are my own,  especially small word omissions which I often don't notice in my fervor.  

    RSS Feed

    ​​​​Archives

    March 2022
    November 2021
    August 2021
    February 2021
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018

    ​Categories

    All
    Abuse
    Achievement Gap
    Adkins Jan
    Albee Sarah
    Anti Bullying
    Anti-bullying
    Art
    Author Driven Nonfiction
    Author-driven Nonfiction
    Authors On Call
    Biology
    Birds
    Black History
    BLC2018
    Book Review
    Child Abuse
    Children As Political Pawns
    Children's Nonfiction
    Citizenship
    Civics
    Civil Rights
    Class ACTS
    Climate Change
    Clinton Chelsea
    Collard III Sneed B.
    Common Core State Standards
    Conversation
    Coronavirus
    Costaldo Nancy F.
    Covid-19
    Critical Thinking
    Data-driven
    Definition
    Democracy
    Dewey John
    Dogs
    Dunphy Madeleine
    Ecology
    Education
    Educational Standards
    Electron Microscope
    Empowerment For Children
    Endangered Species
    Excellence
    Extinction
    Fact-checking
    Fleming Candace
    "flow"
    Galileo
    Girls' Education
    Global Warming
    Greenberg Jan
    Grit
    Gun Violence
    History
    History Of "school Reform"
    Home Libraries
    Hurricanes
    INK Database
    INK Database Of Books
    Insects
    Interactive Video Conferencing
    Isaac Sally
    Jeopardy Winner
    Learning
    Lesser Carolyn
    Leveled Reading
    Levinson Cynthia
    Lexiles
    Listening
    Literacy
    Literature
    Liu Eric
    March For Our Lives
    McClafferty Carla
    Mentor Texts
    Montgomery Heather L.
    Montgomery Sy
    Motivated Reasoning
    Motivation
    Munro Roxie
    Nathan Amy
    Nonfiction
    Nonfiction Minute
    Nonprofit And Education
    Opening Schools
    Patent Dorothy Hinshaw
    Pedagogy
    Picture Books
    Podcasts
    Primary Source
    Pringle Laurence
    Pundits Of The Pandemic
    Rap Music
    Reading
    Rules
    Rusch Elizabeth
    School Choice
    SchoolTube
    School Visits
    Science Experiments You Can Eat
    Science Teaching
    Semple Heidi E.Y.
    Social Skills
    Socrates
    Speaking
    Spring Fling
    Standardized Testing
    STEM
    Studies On Education
    Swanson Jennifer
    Teaching
    Technology And Children
    Thomas Peggy
    Trump
    Truth
    Voting
    Warren Andrea
    Washington George
    Weatherford Carole Boston
    Webinars
    Work With Us
    World War II
    Writing

    RSS Feed

Links

The Nonfiction Minute
​

​iNK Think Tank website

​Vicki Cobb's Kids' Fun Page

We Dare You Videos


Company

iNK Think Tank, Inc. is a nonprofit with the mission of using nonfiction children's literature in classrooms

Contact

vicki@inkthinktank.org
​

© 2019


© COPYRIGHT 2019. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.