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Why Science, Anyhow?

27/3/2020

 
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This quote from the Washington Post is very frightening, "In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot to hurt Trump’s reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak, calling warnings on corona virus a kind of “hoax” meant to undermine him."

For these ignorant people let me try to explain the most important aspect of science as far as life and death is concerned.  Our understanding of weather and violent storms has been growing incrementally and exponentially over the years.  First, we used science to understand the properties and behavior of water and air-- the physical components of weather.  We had to understand the effect of temperature on the volume and pressure of gases, the effect of heat energy on the evaporation of water and wind speed.  There were many variables to measure.


On September 8, 1900, the deadliest hurricane in American history, a category 4 storm hit Galveston, Texas and flattened the town.  The death toll was between 6,000 and 12,000. The folk in Galveston never saw it coming.  Since then the National Hurricane Center has been collecting data, repeatedly measuring the air pressure, wind speed, humidity, and temperature of low pressure areas as they develop into spinning storms and gain strength to become hurricanes aimed towards our shores. These data are use to create mathematical models that can be used to predict the probability of a developing storm to make landfall, where, approximately, it will happen, when and how strong it will be. The picture above shows the "cone of probability" for hurricane Matthew before it hit.  It told the people within the cone to prepare for the storm with enough advance warning for them to do so.  People in Florida believe in the science because many have paid the price for ignoring it.

Epidemiologists have collected years and years of data on pandemics.  They, too, have models that predict possible outcomes.  When it comes to contagious diseases, for which there are no know vaccines or medicines, extreme changes in social behavior and apparel are required.  The kinds of stock-piling of PPEs, ventilators, and other equipment for hospitals should have started when patient zero was identified in China.  But China didn't do it and didn't let the rest of the world know.  So now we know.  It is coming as surely as Matthew hit Florida. 

Science cannot predict exactly what will happen with the spread of Covid 19 because there are so many variables.  But it is here.  It is spreading.  If you don't believe in the validity of the scientific handwriting on the wall, science doesn't care.   And you may be dead before you understand that you were wrong.  



Myra Zarnowski
28/3/2020 04:46:32 pm

This is a sobering and important post. We need to help our citizens understand the nature of scientific thinking. We also need historical thinking, too. This is not the first virus to attack large populations. It won't be the last. What can we learn from our experiences?

Jan Adkins link
29/3/2020 11:38:00 am

Vicki is not merely a woman with a keyboard. She was trained and worked as a scientist. Her technical training bonded her to fact, not superstition.

You may not be aware of how closely those two competitors are. Both are attempts to rationalize the mysteries of life. Both rely on data.

In true scientific method, you make an assumption – a hypothesis – devise a detective method to test your hypothesis with facts that other scientists can do for themselves and replicate your method. The facts tell you if your hypothesis is correct or a mistake. Honest scientists don't worry about the outcome – a proven or disproven hypothesis, they've learned something important either way. A disproved theory is enormously valuable: the truth doesn't lie in that direction!

Superstition begins with an assumption, too. The investigators of the hypothesis hunt for facts that will support their chosen theory. In superstition, your assumption collects only the data that will support it. You can wear a long white lab coat and point to studies and graphs that support your opinion . . . and you can still be a snake-oil salesman.

The difference is that you don't test your theory; you merely support it. Disproving your theory should be as important as supporting it. "Failed" hypotheses are glorious successes in pointing the way to truth.

We're often confronted today with authority figures who offer their opinions with lab-coat facts that seem to support them. They rely on fringe researchers with unproven theories that support THEIR PRESUPPOSED CONCLUSIONS. The conclusions that further their political ideas. They're not searching for truth, but creating a hollow theory and surrounding it with only the data that seems to prove it. This isn't science.

In a basic, painful way, science depends on humility. Honest scientists must welcome thousands of failed hypothesis on the way to truth. "I was wrong, here. But this negative result directs me in another path."

Superstitions and political wannabe science depends on bluster and pride: "I know the truth and, look, these three bits of data prove it!" There are misleading bits of data everywhere, like the stopped clock that is on-time twice a day. Retain your scientific skepticism. Question results. What other studies have reproduced these results? Is there the smell of pride about the bluster?

Vicki Cobb is a real scientist who has embraced prove and disproven hypotheses with equal respect. In this confusing bit of time, our leaders seem to be dragging us into a race for the bottom: who can be ruder and less understanding and more faithful to convenient but unproven science?

There is scientific pride in accepting a broken hypothesis, in stepping away from the wrong direction. Vicki announces her pride in stepping out of the Race for the Bottom. I'll join her. You think about what you need to do.


Comments are closed.

     Vicki Cobb

    *Award-winning author of more than 90 nonfiction books for children, mostly in science.
    *Former Contributor to the Huffington Post
    *Founder/President of iNK Think Tank, Inc.
    *Passionate advocate for the joy of learning for every child and teacher.


    Disclaimer: All opinions, typos, and grammatical errors are my own,  especially small word omissions which I often don't notice in my fervor.  

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