This quote from the Washington Post is very frightening, "In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot to hurt Trump’s reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak, calling warnings on corona virus a kind of “hoax” meant to undermine him."
For these ignorant people let me try to explain the most important aspect of science as far as life and death is concerned. Our understanding of weather and violent storms has been growing incrementally and exponentially over the years. First, we used science to understand the properties and behavior of water and air-- the physical components of weather. We had to understand the effect of temperature on the volume and pressure of gases, the effect of heat energy on the evaporation of water and wind speed. There were many variables to measure.
On September 8, 1900, the deadliest hurricane in American history, a category 4 storm hit Galveston, Texas and flattened the town. The death toll was between 6,000 and 12,000. The folk in Galveston never saw it coming. Since then the National Hurricane Center has been collecting data, repeatedly measuring the air pressure, wind speed, humidity, and temperature of low pressure areas as they develop into spinning storms and gain strength to become hurricanes aimed towards our shores. These data are use to create mathematical models that can be used to predict the probability of a developing storm to make landfall, where, approximately, it will happen, when and how strong it will be. The picture above shows the "cone of probability" for hurricane Matthew before it hit. It told the people within the cone to prepare for the storm with enough advance warning for them to do so. People in Florida believe in the science because many have paid the price for ignoring it.
Epidemiologists have collected years and years of data on pandemics. They, too, have models that predict possible outcomes. When it comes to contagious diseases, for which there are no know vaccines or medicines, extreme changes in social behavior and apparel are required. The kinds of stock-piling of PPEs, ventilators, and other equipment for hospitals should have started when patient zero was identified in China. But China didn't do it and didn't let the rest of the world know. So now we know. It is coming as surely as Matthew hit Florida.
Science cannot predict exactly what will happen with the spread of Covid 19 because there are so many variables. But it is here. It is spreading. If you don't believe in the validity of the scientific handwriting on the wall, science doesn't care. And you may be dead before you understand that you were wrong.
For these ignorant people let me try to explain the most important aspect of science as far as life and death is concerned. Our understanding of weather and violent storms has been growing incrementally and exponentially over the years. First, we used science to understand the properties and behavior of water and air-- the physical components of weather. We had to understand the effect of temperature on the volume and pressure of gases, the effect of heat energy on the evaporation of water and wind speed. There were many variables to measure.
On September 8, 1900, the deadliest hurricane in American history, a category 4 storm hit Galveston, Texas and flattened the town. The death toll was between 6,000 and 12,000. The folk in Galveston never saw it coming. Since then the National Hurricane Center has been collecting data, repeatedly measuring the air pressure, wind speed, humidity, and temperature of low pressure areas as they develop into spinning storms and gain strength to become hurricanes aimed towards our shores. These data are use to create mathematical models that can be used to predict the probability of a developing storm to make landfall, where, approximately, it will happen, when and how strong it will be. The picture above shows the "cone of probability" for hurricane Matthew before it hit. It told the people within the cone to prepare for the storm with enough advance warning for them to do so. People in Florida believe in the science because many have paid the price for ignoring it.
Epidemiologists have collected years and years of data on pandemics. They, too, have models that predict possible outcomes. When it comes to contagious diseases, for which there are no know vaccines or medicines, extreme changes in social behavior and apparel are required. The kinds of stock-piling of PPEs, ventilators, and other equipment for hospitals should have started when patient zero was identified in China. But China didn't do it and didn't let the rest of the world know. So now we know. It is coming as surely as Matthew hit Florida.
Science cannot predict exactly what will happen with the spread of Covid 19 because there are so many variables. But it is here. It is spreading. If you don't believe in the validity of the scientific handwriting on the wall, science doesn't care. And you may be dead before you understand that you were wrong.
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