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Science and Prescience

9/11/2020

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WIN MCNAMEE / GETTY IMAGES
On June 17, 2020, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)   had recorded 120,730 deaths from COVID-19 in the U. S and projected we would surpass 200,000 deaths by October first.  Were they right?  Let's check.  On October 1, 2020 the actual number of deaths was 206,733.  Hmmmm.  How could they be so accurate?  Did they use a crystal ball?

A recent NY Times article cites a study by Stanford University to quantify the mortality fallout of death by Corona as a result of 18 of Trump's pandemically- inappropriate rallies between June and September.  Their results:  more than 30,000 infections and 700 deaths.  They used data, statistics, and mathematical models to estimate what close encounters by the unmasked could generate.  

Wanna know how many dead Americans are projected to die between the election and Inauguration Day if we continue on our current path? Using that amazing graph the answer is: 140,817. If we relax the COVID restrictions ala the Trump rallies, the projection is that 211,122 COVID deaths arrive by January 20.  Now suppose we were all mandated to wear masks and 90% of us complied,  COVID will still rage but the number decreases.  We're projected to lose 89,588.  Again, doing the math( with the help of my trusty technology-invented calculator), a mask mandate  will save the lives of 51,229 of our fellow citizens in that time period.  

This is why data and analysis and models are crucial.  They are guidelines for the future.  The path they predict are only as good as the accuracy of the numbers plugged in.   Tests give us the numbers.  Tracing estimates exposure to those who test positive.  And we have proven methods for counting  the numbers of hospitalizations and people on ventilators and hospital deaths.  These are data we can trust.  

So it doesn't matter if you don't believe in science.  You're gonna find out eventually.  If you live long enough.  



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Halloween Is Coming: Let's Talk and Sing About Ghosts

27/10/2020

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iNK author, Kerrie Logan Hollihan, has just come out with her second book in her "Creepy and True" series: Ghosts Unveiled!  Hmmmmmm....  How is this possible?  A nonfiction book about ghosts?  Certainly there is a plethora of anecdotal evidence. Ghosts Unveiled! is a beautifully produced 200-page book for young adult (and interested adult) readers.  A hard cover with glossy full-color illustrations and plenty of back matter demonstrates that this subject is worthy of consideration. It's also a good read.  Kerrie Hollihan is an excellent writer with a conversational tone and an apt turn of phrase:
 
"Sometime ghosts come and sit on your front steps, visit for a while, and tell you about hidden treasure.  That's what happened a long time ago to a woman in South Carolina....."  That's a set up for a riveting story, which doesn't disappoint.

Enough people have experienced ghosts, apparitions, specters, etc to fill this body of work.  But is it evidence?  Is it a reality?  Am I the right person, a skeptical scientist, to make a judgment that ghosts are real just because they are reliably real to some people?  Having never personally experienced a ghost,  I am astounded at how ubiquitous and popular they are in all cultures all over the world.  Hollihan's work is meticulously researched.  It is the reportage  of witnesses, many witnesses.  Can they all be delusional?  There is a physical aspect to many of these ghost stories that bear credibility to their existence and some have more than one witness.

I wrote a biography of Harry Houdini who joined the Scientific American staff to debunk the many spiritualists who appeared right after WW1 proclaiming that they could "channel" their beloved dead relatives to communicate with bereaved family members.   At seances, there were many "spiritual manifestations"--rapping, levitation of the table top, sound effects, as the dead supposedly communicated to their decendants.  Houdini knew that these spiritual effects were nothing more than theatrical tricks.  And he demonstrated them openly in his performances for all to see.  

And yet, according to Ghosts Unveiled!, countless detailed sightings connected to unrestful dead people cannot be denied, explained or disproved.  I have my own questions about how some of them may be explained and I was curious enough to Google "Railroad Bill..... a train-robbing ghost who wanders the rails of the former Louisville and Nashville Railroad from Tennessee to Florida."

So Hollihan's book made me do a little extra research and I'm sharing the song that this Tennessee legend/ghost inspired.   Happy Halloween!




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The Essence of a Queen

7/9/2020

 
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In this blog, I review children's nonfiction books for their value to the reader. Sharing excellent books can go far during this period of uncertainty for both children and their teachers.  They may even be on topics that young children may not know about.  

Much has been written about Aretha Franklin, the Queen of Soul.  She has literally moved millions, with her 3 octave vocal range, her passionate voice expressing her love of religion and humanity. R-E-S-P-E-C-T, a new picture book poetic biography by iNK author/poet Carole Boston Weatherford shows how less may be the new "more." The format suggests that the target audience is preschool to grade three. However, I loved it for me!

 Weatherford and illustrator Frank Morrison have brought Aretha Franklin's story to life with the fewest possible words, each one lovingly chosen  for double page, lushly painted, brilliant art. Each painting is worthy of study and discovery. The art, spelled word, and the on-topic rhyming couplet  deliver a powerful experience illuminating the essence of Franklin's  life. As a wordsmith for children, Weatherford focuses on the spelling of important words beginning with the title.  Yes,  R-E-S-P-E-C-T is actually spelled out as the title of the book as it is in the actual song, one of Franklin's greatest hits.  

Here's Weatherford's summation of how Aretha Franklin fought for civil rights:
            
              "R-I-G-H-T
                          For the civil rights movement for racial equality
                          Aretha raises funds and gives concerts for free."

Weatherford's Author's Note  a the back of the book is a more detailed summery of Franklin's life of music. She also provides a list of Aretha Franklin's greatest hits.   

The book, is an invitation search YouTube, which is rife with videos that introduce a child or reacquaint adults with the astonishing effect of the Queen of Soul on an audience.







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i

"The Science Should Not Stand in the Way"

17/7/2020

 
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Cook Children's Health Care System, Fort Worth TX
At yesterday's White House press conference, Kayleigh McEnany said that "The science should not stand in the way.." when it comes to opening all schools all over the country, as fully as if Covid had never happened. That is Trump's policy because "children and parents are dying from that trauma, too." [Staying home from school.]  This lack of comprehension about science in the Trump administration is dangerous.  Did  "the science get in the way" when we put men on the moon?

I am also distressed over the order to send all data about Covid to Alex Azar's Department of Health and Human Services instead of the CDC, the agency designed to read such data.  We are being set up to receive fudged data, if we see any data at all.  I hope there is a work-around so the public can be fully informed of  the dreadful numbers of Covid infections, hospitalizations and deaths that are the outcome of the laissez-faire attitudes of Trump followers who have thoughtlessly swallowed his Kool Aid.

What is the value of education if not to enable people to understand the value of science? If you listen carefully to Dr. Fauci, you see he chooses his words carefully.  He tells us that we are still in the process of learning about this novel coronavirus.  And until we understand it well enough to create a safe and effective vaccine we must practice age-old behaviors to protect ourselves and society from the spread of this disease.   I live in New York where we had the leadership of Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Here's our current chart of daily and projected corona virus deaths in NYS. 
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Every day, during the worst of the pandemic here, Andrew Cuomo gave a PowerPoint news conference explaining the numbers, and emphasizing the values for New York; that we were tough, strong, and loving.  Maybe that sounds cheesy but my friends in NYC and my family in western NY are immensely proud of our state.  We were blindsided by the infection landing in our international airports, Kennedy and Newark.  
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​We really sacrificed in lock-down and are timorous about abusing the easing up of restrictions because we don't want to lose what we have gained.  Cuomo says that we can open up our schools with some restrictions if we keep Covid at bay.  All the answers for our state and cities are on that web site.

If we deny the numbers and the science, science tells us that the numbers of infections, hospitalizations and deaths will rise.  Exponentially.  Wait and see.

Kids 5-8 bored with COVID? Watch This!

6/7/2020

 
My latest book, Why Do I Dry Off?, has just been published.  It completes my STEM Play series for parents and kids to do together.  Good for children as young as four.   My m. o. is to integrate questions about the natural environment of a child's life with simple activities  that explore phenomena so that children make discoveries, often non-intuitive.  My books exemplify the way scientists think and act.  I try to have my readers come to understand why scientists love science.

Most professional scientists have discovered science by fourth grade.  I have a scientist son, Josh, who also has a scientist son, Jonny.  (My other son, Theo,  is an artist, I was once that, too. He drew my logo.)

Here's the link to the three titles:

Why Can I Suck Through a Straw?
Why Do I Dry Off?
Why Does My Ice Cream Melt?


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     Vicki Cobb

    *Award-winning author of more than 90 nonfiction books for children, mostly in science.
    *Former Contributor to the Huffington Post
    *Founder/President of iNK Think Tank, Inc.
    *Passionate advocate for the joy of learning for every child and teacher.


    Disclaimer: All opinions, typos, and grammatical errors are my own,  especially small word omissions which I often don't notice in my fervor.  

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